[2026-02-19] NVIDIA (NVDA) - Deep Dive Analysis (English)

📊 Daily Investment Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA)

Date: 2026-02-19 —

📌 Executive Summary

Nvidia’s stock performance is being closely watched as the company approaches its next earnings report. Analyst expectations are high, with many anticipating a strong beat driven by continued demand for AI hardware, particularly in the data center segment. The central question revolves around whether Nvidia can provide guidance that validates its high valuation and the assumption of sustained AI spending through 2026. While the stock saw a slight dip ahead of earnings, overall sentiment remains positive, fueled by analyst reiterations and potential upside to sales estimates.

AI Sentiment Score: 75/100 (🚀 Bullish)

🔑 Key Topics & News Summary

Earnings Expectations

• Wall Street anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $1.52, a 71% increase year-over-year.
• Revenue is projected to reach approximately $65.67 billion, up about 67% year-over-year.
• Analysts forecast full-year 2026 sales of $213.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share.
• A key question is whether guidance can justify current valuation and sustained AI spending through 2026.

Data Center Revenue

• Data center revenue remains Nvidia’s primary growth driver.
• Data center revenue totalled $131.4 billion through the first nine months of the fiscal year.
• Sustained orders for Nvidia’s newest data center platforms are expected.

Analyst Sentiment

• Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer expects a positive earnings report with potential upside to consensus estimates.
• Citigroup and other analysts have reiterated bullish views on the stock.
• Analysts point to sustained orders for Nvidia’s newest data center platforms.

Stock Performance

• Nvidia stock fell 0.15% to $187.16 on Thursday.
• Investors are positioning ahead of the earnings report scheduled for next Wednesday.

⚖️ Bull vs Bear

✅ Bullish Factors (Good News)

• Strong expected earnings growth (71% increase in EPS)
• Significant revenue growth anticipated (67% year-over-year)
• High data center revenue driving growth
• Positive analyst sentiment and reiterated bullish views
• Potential upside to sales estimates
• Sustained orders for Nvidia’s newest data center platforms

⚠️ Bearish Factors (Risk Factors)

• Slight stock dip ahead of earnings
• High expectations already priced into the stock
• Dependence on continued AI spending through 2026
• Risk of guidance not meeting high expectations

💡 Investment Advice

📑 [NVDA] Deep-Dive Investment Analysis

1. 📊 Valuation & Fundamental Analysis

Nvidia’s current price of $187.9 sits significantly below both its 52-week high of $212.19 and the analyst target mean of $253.88, suggesting substantial upside potential (+35% based on target mean, +87% based on target high). While the current PE ratio of 46.51 appears elevated, the forward PE of 24.22 indicates strong anticipated earnings growth in the coming year. This underscores the market’s expectation of Nvidia’s continued dominance in high-growth sectors. The seemingly low dividend yield of 0.02% is not a primary driver for investment, especially considering the focus is on growth. With a market cap of over $4.5 trillion, Nvidia’s sheer size provides stability, but also implies that maintaining high growth rates will become increasingly challenging. The valuation heavily relies on Nvidia’s ability to consistently deliver exceptional growth, particularly in data center revenue, driven by AI-related demand. If earnings fail to meet expectations, the multiple contraction could be significant. However, based on current expectations of strong growth, the stock appears to be undervalued, especially considering the rapid expansion in its addressable markets, particularly in China and other international markets.

2. 📰 Key Drivers & Deep News Analysis

(1) Sustained AI Demand and Data Center Growth

• Fact Check: Recent news highlights Wall Street’s bullishness on Nvidia, with analysts like those at Citigroup reaffirming positive views. The core driver is the continued strong demand for advanced AI hardware, especially for data centers. Data center revenue has been the primary growth engine, totaling $131.4 billion through the first nine months of the fiscal year. Analysts are also factoring in enterprise adoption, government-backed projects, and international infrastructure builds as increasingly important contributors.
• Implication: This sustained demand has a direct and positive impact on Nvidia’s revenue and earnings. High demand allows the company to maintain higher average selling prices and supports strong gross margins, a key driver of profitability. The broadening customer base reduces reliance on a few hyperscalers, increasing revenue stability. Data center growth continues to be vital to Nvidia’s overall financial health. The analyst forecasts estimate of full-year sales of $213.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share for fiscal 2026 is underpinned by this continued demand.
• Sentiment: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. The bullish views from Citigroup and others are fueling further investor confidence. The market seems to already be pricing in the expectation that Nvidia will beat earnings estimates and that AI spending will remain robust through 2026 and beyond. However, any sign of slowing demand or increased competition could trigger a significant sell-off.

(2) Upcoming Earnings and Guidance

• Fact Check: Nvidia’s next earnings report is highly anticipated. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.52, representing a 71% increase from $0.89 a year earlier, and revenue of approximately $65.67 billion, up about 67% year over year. The focus is not just on the beat, but on management’s guidance for the next several quarters.
• Implication: Meeting or exceeding these expectations is crucial to justifying Nvidia’s valuation. Positive guidance will reinforce investor confidence and could lead to further price appreciation. Strong earnings would reaffirm the Forward PE of 24.22. Conversely, a miss on earnings or weak guidance could trigger a significant correction, particularly given the high expectations already priced into the stock. Management commentary on future product roadmaps, customer demand, and competition will be critical for shaping market sentiment.
• Sentiment: Investors are jittery ahead of the earnings release, as demonstrated by the slight decline in share price prior to the earnings report. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, contingent on positive earnings and reassuring guidance. The stock’s valuation assumes that AI infrastructure spending is not a short-term phenomenon.

(3) Total Addressable Market Expansion, Especially in China

• Fact Check: Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer estimates Nvidia’s broader addressable market to be around $4 trillion, with China representing a potential $50 billion total addressable market. China’s market is contingent on H200 license approvals. Schafer considers this a matter of “when” not “if”.
• Implication: Expanding into new markets like China increases Nvidia’s long-term growth potential and reduces its reliance on existing markets. Securing the necessary licenses for the H200 chips is essential for realizing this potential. The $50 billion TAM in China alone could significantly boost Nvidia’s revenue growth over the coming years. The success of new products like Vera Rubin, which could contribute approximately $8 billion in additional revenue, further demonstrates Nvidia’s ability to innovate and capture new market opportunities.
• Sentiment: The market views the expansion into China as a major potential growth driver. However, regulatory uncertainty surrounding the H200 license approvals creates some risk. Any negative news regarding these approvals could negatively impact the stock price. Schafer’s maintained outperform rating and $265 price target, in light of the potential Chinese TAM, underscores the positive sentiment.

3. ⚖️ Scenario Analysis (Bull vs Bear)

• 📈 Bull Case: If Nvidia continues to exceed earnings expectations, secures key licenses in China, and expands its market share in the data center and AI sectors, the stock could reach the high-end analyst target of $352. This scenario assumes continued strong demand for AI hardware, successful product launches, and favorable regulatory outcomes. Furthermore, successful diversification into new applications such as autonomous vehicles and robotics would provide additional upside.
• 📉 Bear Case: Downside risks include a slowdown in AI spending, increased competition from AMD and other players, regulatory challenges in China or other key markets, and supply chain disruptions. If any of these factors materialize, Nvidia’s growth rate could slow, leading to multiple contraction and a significant price decline. Support levels would likely be found around the 52-week low of $86.62, but could fall further if the negative catalysts are significant.

4. 🧠 Final Verdict

🚀 Rating: Strong Buy

Investment Thesis:

Nvidia represents a compelling investment opportunity due to its dominant position in the rapidly growing AI and data center markets. While the valuation is rich, it is justified by the company’s exceptional growth prospects and its proven ability to innovate and capture market share. The recent bullish sentiment from Wall Street, coupled with the potential for significant expansion in markets like China, further supports a positive outlook. Nvidia’s forward PE ratio of 24.22, while not inexpensive, reflects the expectation of continued strong earnings growth, driven by sustained demand for its advanced AI hardware. Although there is short-term risk from earnings uncertainty, the long-term trend is that this will be a growth company for the next 5-10 years.

The stock’s performance hinges on its ability to deliver strong earnings and guidance, coupled with its expansion into new markets and applications. The potential $50 billion total addressable market in China, combined with the success of new products like Vera Rubin, further reinforces Nvidia’s growth potential. The company’s focus on maintaining high average selling prices and strong gross margins positions it favorably for continued profitability. Although increased competition from other companies poses a long-term risk, Nvidia’s first-mover advantage and technological leadership provide it with a significant competitive edge. A positive earnings report next week would be a strong catalyst to move the stock upwards.

Action Plan:

• Entry Timing: Buy Now. Given the strong growth prospects and positive sentiment, waiting for a dip may not be necessary. While there is short-term earnings uncertainty, the momentum indicates the stock will rise more quickly than it will drop.
• Risk Management: Set a stop-loss order at $165. This level provides downside protection while still allowing for short-term fluctuations. Monitor macro economic indicators closely, particularly interest rates and inflation, as these could impact overall market sentiment and valuations. Also, regulatory developments in China and competitive landscape changes could pose near term risks.

🔗 Reference News (Source)

1. Nvidia stock jittery ahead of next week’s results: what to expect (2026-02-19T16:45:00+00:00)
2. Why Wall Street Is Turning More Bullish On Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings (2026-02-19T14:22:00+00:00)

Disclaimer: This report is generated by AI (Gemini) and does not constitute financial advice.