[2026-02-24] NVIDIA (NVDA) - Deep Dive Analysis (English)

📊 Daily Investment Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA)

Date: 2026-02-24 —

📌 Executive Summary

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is a critical event that could significantly impact investor confidence in the AI hardware market and the broader tech sector. While hyperscale capex forecasts indicate continued strong AI investment and analysts anticipate a blockbuster quarter for Nvidia, there are also concerns about overall tech spending and the sustainability of the AI boom. Nvidia has outperformed most of the Magnificent 7 stocks this year, but its performance is crucial to maintaining the current AI-driven market momentum. Investors are closely watching whether Nvidia can justify the high expectations surrounding AI hardware demand.

AI Sentiment Score: 75/100 (🚀 Bullish)

🔑 Key Topics & News Summary

Nvidia Earnings and AI Market Confidence

• Nvidia’s Q4 earnings are highly anticipated and could make or break confidence in the AI hardware market.
• Analysts expect strong revenue and gross margins, driven by demand for AI accelerators from cloud providers and hyperscalers.
• The earnings report will be a key indicator of whether the AI boom has room to run.
• Nvidia has become synonymous with the AI market, and its stock performance is critical for maintaining investor sentiment.

AI Spending and Hyperscale Capex

• Hyperscale capex forecasts for 2026 have exceeded prior expectations, with servers and AI infrastructure representing the bulk of the spend.
• Growth in AI investment is expected to somewhat exceed overall capex trends.
• Major customers have announced increased spending on AI infrastructure.
• AMD secured a deal to provide Meta with GPUs for its AI build-out, highlighting the competitive landscape.

Market Performance and the Magnificent 7

• Most of the Magnificent 7 stocks have experienced losses year-to-date, except for Nvidia.
• Nvidia’s stock is up slightly in 2026, while the Nasdaq has dropped.
• The S&P 500 would be up, rather than down, in 2026 if not for the influence of the Magnificent 7 stocks.
• The performance of Nvidia is crucial for keeping the Big AI trade alive.

AI Disruptions and Software Rally

• Initial concerns about AI disruptions eased, leading to a rally in software stocks.
• Anthropic announced partnerships with several software companies, including Salesforce, FactSet, and DocuSign, boosting their stock prices.
• The market experienced a rebound after a sell-off driven by renewed concerns about AI disrupting corporate America.

⚖️ Bull vs Bear

✅ Bullish Factors (Good News)

• Strong expected Q4 revenue and gross margins for Nvidia.
• Increasing hyperscale capex forecasts for AI infrastructure.
• Nvidia’s leading position in the AI hardware market.
• Positive sentiment driven by easing concerns about immediate AI disruptions.

⚠️ Bearish Factors (Risk Factors)

• Skepticism over the sustainability of AI spending.
• Double-digit declines in Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla stocks.
• Potential for Nvidia’s earnings to disappoint high expectations.
• General market weakness reflected in the S&P 500 performance due to the Magnificent 7.

💡 Investment Advice

📑 [NVDA] Deep-Dive Investment Analysis

1. 📊 Valuation & Fundamental Analysis

Nvidia’s current price of $192.85 presents a compelling entry point given the consensus target mean of $254.54, suggesting a significant potential upside. This is further supported by a high target of $352.0, indicating that some analysts see even greater potential in the stock. However, investors should be cognizant of the 52-week range, with the current price sitting considerably closer to the 52-week high ($212.19) than the low ($86.62), suggesting less room for immediate short-term gains relative to the previous year. The PE ratio of 47.74, while seemingly high, needs to be viewed in the context of Nvidia’s exceptional growth trajectory. The forward PE of 24.54, nearly half the current PE, signals anticipated significant earnings growth in the coming year. This anticipated growth justifies a higher valuation relative to peers experiencing slower growth. The minimal dividend yield of 0.02% is negligible and suggests that Nvidia is prioritizing reinvestment into growth initiatives, consistent with its hyper-growth phase. The mammoth market capitalization of $4.7 trillion, though seemingly large, still leaves room for expansion given the potentially revolutionary applications of AI in various sectors of the global economy.

2. 📰 Key Drivers & Deep News Analysis

(1) Upcoming Earnings and AI Spending Skepticism

• Fact Check: Nvidia is set to release its quarterly earnings after market close on Wednesday. The market is anticipating another strong performance, driven by continued robust demand for AI hardware, particularly GPUs. However, recent news highlights increasing skepticism from Wall Street regarding the sustainability of current AI spending levels and the potential for overbuilding in the tech industry. Major customers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are projected to collectively spend nearly $700 billion on AI expansion this year, representing a significant increase in capital expenditures.
• Implication: A strong earnings report will likely reinforce confidence in Nvidia’s near-term revenue and earnings growth, driving the stock price higher. Conversely, any signs of slowing growth or concerns about future demand could trigger a significant sell-off, particularly given the already high valuation and the substantial expectations priced into the stock. If Nvidia’s earnings or guidance point to any moderation in AI infrastructure spending, the current forward PE ratio could be deemed too high, leading to a potential contraction.
• Sentiment: Market sentiment is currently cautiously optimistic, with a strong emphasis on Nvidia’s ability to deliver on expectations. The news of software stock relief rallies ahead of Nvidia’s earnings indicates a market eager to validate the AI boom. However, underlying skepticism about AI spending suggests that the market’s reaction to earnings will be highly sensitive. This creates a situation where the stock is highly priced and any negative surprise can have outsized negative impact.

(2) Competition and Hyperscaler Investment in Alternative Solutions

• Fact Check: While Nvidia currently dominates the AI hardware market, news reports highlight the growing efforts of major AI users like Meta and Google to develop or adopt alternative GPU solutions. These initiatives are driven by a desire to cut costs, optimize performance for specific workloads, and reduce dependence on Nvidia. This includes investment in custom silicon and alternative accelerators.
• Implication: The rise of alternative solutions poses a long-term threat to Nvidia’s market share and pricing power. While these efforts may not immediately impact Nvidia’s revenue, they signal a potential shift in the competitive landscape. The long-term impact could be a reduction in Nvidia’s gross margins as it is forced to compete on price, or a decline in market share as hyperscalers become less reliant on its products. This is important considering 90% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from data centers.
• Sentiment: The market is starting to acknowledge the potential for increased competition, but it is not yet fully priced into the stock. While most analysts still recommend buying Nvidia, the growing discussion about alternative solutions introduces uncertainty. The fact that AI-adjacent stocks, energy, and industrials are starting to lead the market suggests a broadening of the AI trade and potential rotation away from pure-play AI hardware providers like Nvidia.

(3) Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks

• Fact Check: News reports indicate concerns about a potential trade war following President Trump’s announcement of a 10% global tariff. Investors are also closely watching Trump’s State of the Union address for insights into his trade policy and economic outlook. Furthermore, fears of an AI-fueled recession, fueled by reports warning of potential disruption to corporate America, weigh on market sentiment.
• Implication: A trade war could disrupt Nvidia’s supply chain, increase costs, and reduce demand for its products, particularly in international markets. A recession, whether AI-fueled or otherwise, could dampen overall IT spending, impacting Nvidia’s revenue growth. While Nvidia’s products are enabling AI advancements, they are not immune to macro economic downturns.
• Sentiment: The market is increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Worries over trade wars and a potential recession are contributing to market volatility and could negatively impact Nvidia’s stock price. While Nvidia’s growth is driven by secular trends, it’s still subject to cyclical patterns of economic expansions and contractions.

3. ⚖️ Scenario Analysis (Bull vs Bear)

• 📈 Bull Case: Nvidia continues to exceed earnings expectations, demonstrating sustained demand for its AI hardware and successfully navigating the competitive landscape. The company innovates rapidly, maintains its technological lead, and capitalizes on the growth of new AI applications. The bull case rests on the assumption that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, driven by the continued growth of large language models and other AI applications. Price target: $352 (based on existing high target). Conditions: Continued positive earnings surprises, no significant increase in competition, favorable macroeconomic environment.

• 📉 Bear Case: Nvidia’s earnings disappoint, signaling a slowdown in demand or increased competition. Hyperscalers successfully develop and deploy alternative GPU solutions, reducing their reliance on Nvidia. A trade war or recession negatively impacts IT spending and disrupts Nvidia’s supply chain. Investor sentiment turns negative, leading to a significant correction in the stock price. Downside Risks: Earnings Miss, Hyperscaler Shift to Alternative Solutions, Macroeconomic Downturn. Support Levels: $150 (based on 20% down from current price).

4. 🧠 Final Verdict

🚀 Rating: Buy

Investment Thesis:

Nvidia remains a core holding for investors seeking exposure to the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. While the company faces increasing competition and macroeconomic headwinds, its current dominance in the AI hardware market, coupled with its strong growth trajectory, supports a positive outlook. The forward PE of 24.54, while elevated, is justifiable given the anticipated earnings growth. The current market pullback presents a reasonable entry point to accumulate shares in a company that is poised to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI revolution. However, investors must be aware of the risks associated with high expectations, increased competition, and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Action Plan:

• Entry Timing: Initiate a position now, but scale in over time to mitigate risk. A full position should be built over weeks, or even months.
• Risk Management: Implement a stop-loss order at $160 to protect against downside risk in case of a negative earnings surprise or a significant shift in market sentiment. Closely monitor news related to competition and macroeconomic conditions, and be prepared to adjust your position accordingly.

Disclaimer: 본 리포트는 AI 분석 결과이며 투자 권유가 아닙니다. (English: AI Analysis, not investment advice.)

🔗 Reference News (Source)

1. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump as software leads AI relief rally ahead of Nvidia earnings (2026-02-24T21:13:00+00:00)
2. Nvidia earnings report collides with Wall Street skepticism over AI spending (2026-02-24T11:01:00+00:00)
3. Nvidia’s Earnings Are Almost Here. Here’s the State of the Magnificent 7 Stocks. (2026-02-24T17:06:00+00:00)
4. Nvidia’s Q4 results could make or break confidence in the AI hardware market (2026-02-24T12:53:00+00:00)
5. Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq climb as software stocks lead AI relief rally (2026-02-24T18:31:00+00:00)

Disclaimer: This report is generated by AI (Gemini) and does not constitute financial advice.