[2026-02-26] NVIDIA (NVDA) - Deep Dive Analysis (English)

📊 Daily Investment Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA)

Date: 2026-02-26 —

📌 Executive Summary

Nvidia reported strong earnings and revenue growth, surpassing Wall Street expectations driven by robust demand for AI chips. Despite the earnings beat and positive outlook, the stock experienced volatility, initially surging before pulling back. Concerns surrounding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, elevated valuations, and profit-taking contributed to the mixed market reaction. Investors are becoming harder to please, requiring more than just strong results to fuel continued stock gains.

AI Sentiment Score: 68/100 (📈 Slightly Bullish)

🔑 Key Topics & News Summary

Earnings Beat

• Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, exceeding expectations.
• Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.62, also beating forecasts.
• The company’s data center unit reported revenue of $62.3 billion, higher than estimated.
• Nvidia’s outlook for the next quarter is also above analyst forecasts.

Stock Volatility

• Nvidia shares initially surged in after-hours trading after the earnings report, briefly crossing $200.
• The stock quickly pulled back, with gains fading as traders locked in profits.
• Shares dropped more than 5% despite the positive earnings, marking the worst session since April.
• Other chipmakers, including Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, also experienced declines.

AI Investment Concerns

• Investors are expressing concerns about the sustainability of AI capex spending.
• There are questions about the quantum of spending, monetization strategies, and potential cash flow degradation.
• Some fear AI disruption to various industries.
• Elevated valuations and high capital expenditures are raising the bar for AI stocks.

AI Demand

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the continued strong demand for AI compute.
• He stated that enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing.
• Customers are reportedly racing to invest in AI compute.
• This demand is driving growth in Nvidia’s data center unit.

⚖️ Bull vs Bear

✅ Bullish Factors (Good News)

• Strong earnings and revenue growth exceeding Wall Street expectations
• Positive outlook for the next quarter, surpassing analyst forecasts
• Continued strong demand for AI chips, especially in the data center unit
• Nvidia’s dominant position as the primary supplier of AI computing hardware
• CEO highlights increased enterprise adoption of AI agents

⚠️ Bearish Factors (Risk Factors)

• Stock price decline despite the earnings beat, indicating investor hesitation
• Concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and monetization
• Profit-taking by investors after initial stock surge
• Wider market jitters related to AI disruption and high valuations
• Declines in other chipmaker stocks suggesting broader sector concerns

💡 Investment Advice

📑 [NVDA] Deep-Dive Investment Analysis

1. 📊 Valuation & Fundamental Analysis

At a current price of $184.89, NVDA presents a compelling, albeit volatile, investment opportunity. The target mean of $261.27292 indicates a substantial upside potential, while the more optimistic target high of $380 suggests even greater returns if NVDA successfully executes its AI strategy and maintains its market dominance. However, the recent stock performance following earnings releases paints a complex picture, necessitating a deeper dive. NVDA’s trailing PE ratio of 45.65 signals a premium valuation, which is understandable given its high growth trajectory. However, the forward PE of 17.43, if realized, would suggest that current earnings growth can be sustained in the near future. This necessitates an examination of factors that could support or hinder sustained growth. While NVDA offers a small dividend yield of 0.02, it is unlikely to be a primary motivator for investment. Instead, the company’s strength lies in its growth potential and ability to capitalize on the AI revolution. Its market capitalization of $4,501,516,845,056 firmly establishes it as a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, providing it with significant resources for research and development, strategic acquisitions, and defending its market share. The wide range between the 52-week high ($212.19) and low ($86.62) highlights the inherent volatility associated with the stock and emphasizes the importance of disciplined risk management.

2. 📰 Key Drivers & Deep News Analysis

(1) AI Capex Sustainability Concerns

• Fact Check: Recent news indicates growing investor concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure (capex) spending. Janus Henderson portfolio manager Richard Clode highlighted the debate shifting from near-term results to the “sustainability of AI capex spending, amid concerns around its quantum, monetization and potential cashflow degradation.” This concern is amplified by the fact that companies across various industries are rattled by fears of AI disruption. Further, analyst Daniel Newman of Futurum stated, “People love Nvidia’s margins, but don’t believe they’re sustainable. People love the revenue bookings, but don’t believe that this capex number can continue. So, it’s kind of just like, we love it, but we don’t believe it.”
• Implication: If AI capex slows down, it directly impacts NVDA’s future revenue growth, particularly in its data center business, which is currently driving most of its growth. Slower growth would negatively impact earnings and put downward pressure on NVDA’s forward PE ratio. The current valuation relies heavily on sustained growth, and any perceived slowdown could trigger a significant correction. The concerns about monetization and cash flow degradation suggest that investors are questioning whether the current levels of investment in AI infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. This impacts the long-term revenue potential.
• Sentiment: Despite recent earnings beats, the market reaction has been muted, suggesting that these concerns are already priced into the stock to some extent. The initial after-hours surge following the earnings report was quickly followed by a pullback, indicating that investors are taking profits and reassessing future growth expectations. This cautious sentiment suggests that future positive catalysts will need to be exceptionally strong to move the needle significantly.

(2) OpenAI Partnership Uncertainty

• Fact Check: Nvidia’s 10-K regulatory filing revealed uncertainty regarding its $100 billion deal with OpenAI. While the company is “finalizing an investment and partnership agreement” with OpenAI, the filing explicitly states, “There is no assurance that we will enter into an investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI or that a transaction will be completed.” CEO Jensen Huang later stated that he believed they were “close” to being finalized, but the initial statement creates doubt.
• Implication: A failed or delayed partnership with OpenAI could negatively impact NVDA’s market position and future revenue streams. OpenAI is a leading player in the AI space, and a strong partnership would provide NVDA with access to cutting-edge AI technologies and applications. The uncertainty surrounding the deal also creates reputational risk for NVDA, as investors may question its ability to secure key partnerships in the AI ecosystem. Further delays or the complete failure of the deal would impact NVDA’s growth narratives and potentially impact forward PE ratio.
• Sentiment: The market seems to be factoring in the possibility of a failed deal. The fact that the news didn’t trigger a massive sell-off suggests that it is somewhat priced in. However, any confirmation of a terminated deal would likely trigger a negative reaction, as it would remove a key potential growth driver.

(3) Earnings Beat, Muted Market Reaction

• Fact Check: NVDA has consistently reported earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. The most recent earnings release showed revenues surpassing estimates, and the company’s outlook for the next quarter also exceeded analyst forecasts. However, despite these strong results, the stock has not experienced significant sustained gains. Articles mention Nvidia’s stock sinking 5% despite the strong earnings report. Further, the AI hype has turned into fatigue and hesitation on Wall Street.
• Implication: The muted market reaction to earnings beats highlights a “no good enough” reality for NVDA. The bar for earnings keeps rising amid signs of AI fatigue. This places increased pressure on NVDA to consistently exceed expectations in order to justify its premium valuation. The lack of significant stock appreciation despite strong results suggests that investors are either skeptical of the sustainability of the company’s growth or believe that the current stock price already reflects its future potential. This means that the stock is more vulnerable to negative surprises or macroeconomic headwinds.
• Sentiment: The market sentiment is mixed. While analysts continue to sing NVDA’s praises, their reports don’t immediately translate to stock gains. Investors are focused on future guidance and sustainability, not just current numbers. This suggests that NVDA will need to provide greater transparency and visibility into its long-term strategy in order to restore investor confidence.

3. ⚖️ Scenario Analysis (Bull vs Bear)

• 📈 Bull Case:
  • Price Target: $380 (based on target high)
  • Conditions: Sustained high demand for AI chips, successful partnerships (including OpenAI), breakthrough innovations in AI hardware and software, easing of geopolitical tensions (particularly regarding China), and a strong macroeconomic environment. Specifically, if NVDA continues to show increasing revenue and can get to the stage of convincing investors of the sustainability of AI investments (potentially in the Morgan Stanley TMT conference), then we could see investors start to believe in NVDA and the price will rise. If the partnership with OpenAI finalizes, this would be a major bullish catalyst.
• 📉 Bear Case:
  • Downside Risks: Slowdown in AI spending, increased competition from AMD or other chipmakers, failure to secure key partnerships, regulatory challenges, geopolitical risks (particularly related to China), and a broader economic downturn.
  • Support Levels: Potential support levels exist around $170 and $150, based on previous trading patterns and technical analysis. A breach of these levels could indicate further downside potential. Also, a general cooling off of the AI hype could make NVDA’s stock fall back to earth and be realistically priced.

4. 🧠 Final Verdict

🚀 Rating: Strong Buy

Investment Thesis:

NVDA remains a strong buy despite recent volatility and concerns about AI capex sustainability. The company’s dominant position in the AI hardware market, coupled with its consistent earnings beats, makes it a key beneficiary of the ongoing AI revolution. While challenges exist, including uncertainty surrounding the OpenAI partnership and increased scrutiny on future growth, NVDA’s strong fundamentals, coupled with its commitment to innovation, positions it for continued success. The potential upside, as indicated by the target mean of $261.27292 and the target high of $380, outweighs the downside risks, making NVDA an attractive investment for long-term growth. While the market reaction to recent earnings has been muted, the company’s ability to consistently exceed expectations suggests that it is well-positioned to navigate the evolving AI landscape. The short-term volatility provides a window of opportunity for investors to accumulate shares at attractive prices.

The key to NVDA’s future success lies in its ability to demonstrate the sustainability of its growth and profitability. This will require continued innovation, strategic partnerships, and effective communication with investors. Furthermore, NVDA must navigate the geopolitical challenges associated with the semiconductor industry and mitigate the risks posed by increased competition. However, given its strong track record and leadership position, NVDA is well-equipped to overcome these obstacles and deliver long-term value to its shareholders. The high forward PE ratio suggests strong earnings growth which outweighs current investor fears.

Action Plan:

• Entry Timing: Accumulate shares gradually on dips, particularly if the stock price falls below $180.
• Risk Management: Set a stop-loss order at $165 to protect against significant downside risk. Monitor macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical events closely, as these factors could significantly impact NVDA’s stock performance. Be especially vigilant regarding news and developments concerning AI spending trends, partnership negotiations, and competitive pressures. Also, keep watch on the Morgan Stanley TMT conference to see if Jensen Huang can quell investor fears.

Disclaimer: 본 리포트는 AI 분석 결과이며 투자 권유가 아닙니다. (English: AI Analysis, not investment advice.)

🔗 Reference News (Source)

1. Nvidia’s blowout earnings report disappoints Wall Street as stock sinks 5% (2026-02-26T19:26:00+00:00)
2. Nvidia earnings showcase a harsh reality for AI stocks: Investors are getting harder and harder to please (2026-02-26T17:33:00+00:00)
3. Nvidia Tops Earnings, Stock Briefly Hits $200 Before Pullback (2026-02-25T23:52:00+00:00)
4. Nvidia earnings recap: Stock rises after earnings blow past Wall Street estimates (2026-02-25T23:35:00+00:00)
5. Nvidia Earnings Live: Chipmaker’s Results Blow Past Wall Street Estimates as Customers ‘Are Racing to Invest in AI’ (2026-02-25T23:37:00+00:00)

Disclaimer: This report is generated by AI (Gemini) and does not constitute financial advice.